Italian Retail Snapshot | H1 2022
The Italian Retail Market Performance in 2022 first semester
- Francesca Fantuzzi
- Carlo Cocuzzo
- Claudia Solarino
- The Italian economy is now facing headwinds
The Italian economy decelerated sharply in 2022 amid higher geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine, although the latest GDP growth numbers came in higher than expected, largely supported by investment.
- Retail warehousing gains traction across investors
Retail investment volumes grew in the first six months of 2022 (almost doubled YoY), which suggests that the sector is gradually improving from the pandemic lows. Retail warehousing in particular (which includes retail parks and big boxes) seems to stimulate investors appetite, although it’s too soon yet to talk about a full-speed recovery.
- Retail investments are gradually recovering
Looking ahead, risks to GDP growth are skewed to the downside because of rising inflation and tightening financial conditions. Although retail investments increased in the first six months of 2022, investors are still assuming a more cautious stance as the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated and further uncertainty is mounting ahead.
The Italian economy decelerated sharply in 2022 amid higher geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although GDP growth in Q1 surprised on the upside (+0.1% QoQ) and preliminary estimates for Q2 came in above market expectations too (+1% QoQ). Having said this, confidence indicators in July were all pointing downwards, suggesting a more cautious stance going forward.
Retail is gradually improving following the pandemic lows: a total of €0.4 billion were invested in the retail sector (almost doubled YoY) in H1 2022. Of these, around 20% were in-town transactions while some 80% were out-of-town. In-town transactions reached €77mln spanned across three deals, two of which were recorded in Rome and one in Milan. Out-of-town transactions reached €300mln spanned across 10 deals.